Red blood cell sodium-lithium countertransport and risk of future hypertension: the Olivetti Prospective Heart Study.

An elevated red blood cell (RBC) sodium-lithium countertransport (Na-Li CT) is associated with high blood pressure (BP) in cross-sectional investigations; however, its value as a predictor of future hypertension, and thus of cardiovascular risk, has not been defined. The present study evaluated the association between Na-Li CT and risk of future hypertension in a sample of 106 untreated normotensive middle-aged men participating in the Olivetti Prospective Heart Study in southern Italy. BP, anthropometric and metabolic variables, and RBC Na-Li CT were measured at baseline in 1987 and at a follow-up visit in 1994 through 1995. Na-Li CT was stable over time (r=0.85) and was significantly associated to systolic BP in both visits. Of the 106 initially normotensive participants, 14 were found to be hypertensive at the 8-year follow-up examination. Eleven of these 14 hypertensives were in the highest tertile of systolic BP at baseline, and 9 of 11 also had an elevated baseline Na-Li CT. In multiple logistic regression analysis, baseline BP, Na-Li CT, and age were all significant predictors of the risk of future hypertension. Individuals with baseline systolic BP in the highest tertile had a 60% risk of developing hypertension if their Na-Li CT was also high, whereas their risk was only 5% if Na-Li CT was in the two lowest tertiles (P=0.003). RBC Na-Li CT was a valuable predictor of subsequent hypertension in middle-aged men with a high-normal BP level for their age.